Maternity Service Capacity - Model, Simulation & Analysis

CONTENTS

Objective 1 - Model current Maternity Service activity using process mapping and queuing network analysis\   1.1   Raw Data Manipulation & Variability Analysis\   1.2   Establish Input Profiles for Mathematical Model

Objective 2 - Determine current capacity requirements using simulation and mathematical modeling\   2.1   Current Capacity Requirements - Historical Data\   2.2   Current Capacity Requirements - Simulated Model\   2.3   Results Analysis - Simulated Model Accuracy

Objective 3 - Determine future capacity requirements at 5 and 10 years based on population demographics projections data.\   3.1   Capacity Requirements - 5 year forecast\   3.2   Capacity Requirements - 10 year forecast

Objective 1 - Model current Maternity Service activity using process mapping and queuing network analysis

1.1. RAW DATA MANIPULATION & VARIABILITY ANALYSIS

Aim: Convert the raw data from the extracted hospital data into a form that can be analysed.\ Analysis how different events vary the three critical inputs for the mathematical model;

IMPORT PROJECT LIBRARIES
CONVERSION OF EVENTS INTO LIKE GROUPINGS

Based on results of variability analysis events that have the same profile for the three mathematical models are grouped together.\ Grouping like factors together improves the accuracy of the model by providing more historical data points

FUNCTIONS FOR DATA MANIPULATION
UPDATE HISTORICAL DATA TABLE

Calculate the input variables; Inter-Arrival Time, Patient Flow Path and Length of Stay(LOS).\ Add event information that affect input variables, include; Year, Month, Holidays, Day of Week, Time of Day

MODIFY HISTORICAL DATA TO THE IDEAL FLOW PATH

Convert non-ideal patient flow paths seen in the historical data to a path that the hospital is aiming to achieve to improve patient care and hosipital resourcing.

1.2 ESTABLISH INPUT PROFILES FOR MATHEMATICAL MODEL

CALCULATE SUMMARY TABLES

Convert input probability distributions into a mathematical model that can be used by the Monte Carlo Simulation

SUMMARY TABLES

Objective 2 - Determine current capacity requirements using simulation and mathematical modeling

2.1 - CURRENT CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS - HISTORICAL DATA

CALCULATE CURRENT OCCUPANCY
HISTOGRAM FUNCTION FOR DATA VISUALISATION
OCCUPANCY PROFILE VISUALISATION - ORIGINAL HISTORICAL
OCCUPANCY PROFILE VISUALISATION - IDEAL FLOW HISTORICAL

SIMULATION CODE

COMBINE ALL DATASETS

ARRIVALS PER YEAR

IDEAL FLOW PROBABILITY

BRANCHING PROBABILITIES

VERIFICATION OF DATA

INTERPRETING RESULTS